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Subject: DNI-NEWS Digest - 21 Jun 1999 to 22 Jun 1999
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There are 4 messages totalling 446 lines in this issue.

Topics of the day:

1. GIU: Israel Fires Warning Shot at Iran
2. Stratfor's Foundation Analysis: Iran/Israel...
3. AP: Iran Dissident Case Gets Setback...
4. IRAN/Amnesty International: Fear for Safety

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 22 Jun 1999 14:26:38 -0700
From: Arash Alavi <aalavi@US.ORACLE.COM>
Subject: GIU: Israel Fires Warning Shot at Iran

STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update June 22, 1999

Israel Fires Warning Shot at Iran

Summary:

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz on June 20 published a report
claiming that Iranian President Mohammad Khatami had sought
Britain's help in mediating disarmament talks between Iran
and Israel. The report's release would seem doomed not only
to sink the talks, but also to seal the fates of 13 Iranian
Jews about to go on trial in Iran on allegations of spying
for Israel and the U.S. However, the decision to release
details of back channel Iran-Israel negotiations may be a
warning to Iran's hard-liners that Israel is willing to
release details of 20 years of such talks -- dossiers that
could ruin more than a few of Iran's great Islamic
revolutionaries.

Analysis:

Iran's foreign ministry on June 21 blasted a report in the
previous day's edition of the Israeli newspaper Haaretz,
which claimed that Iranian President Mohammad Khatami had
asked Britain to facilitate disarmament and confidence
building talks between Iran and Israel. Iranian Foreign
Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi called the report a
"baseless disinformation campaign by the Zionist propaganda
machine." The pro-Khatami newspaper Hamshahri also attacked
the report, calling it "a filthy move to ruin the
reputation and image of President Khatami," and an effort
"to destroy the Iranian government's policy of detente."
The Haaretz report, which has been widely repeated in the
British press, cited unnamed British officials as stating
that Khatami offered a plan calling on both Israel and Iran
to renounce surface to surface missile first strike options
and to disarm long range missiles with non-conventional
warheads. Britain's foreign office has also denied any
knowledge of or participation in such negotiations.

The Haaretz report, which would seem guaranteed to torpedo
such back channel negotiations under any circumstances,
comes as something of a surprise at this particular moment,
given the upcoming trial of 13 Iranian Jews on charges of
spying for Israel and the United States. The 13 alleged
spies, reportedly arrested two months ago but only
officially acknowledged by the Iranian government last
week, are believed to be victims of the ongoing power
struggle between Iran's conservatives and the moderate
Khatami. Indeed, Khatami, whose efforts at improving Iran's
international relations have been quite successful, has
struggled to assure the international community that the
detainee's arrests had nothing to do with their religious
affiliation, and that they would receive the full
protection of the law.

If the arrests and trial of the 13 Iranian Jews was, in
fact, an attempt by Iranian hard-liners to derail Khatami's
efforts at international rapprochement, then the Haaretz
article would appear not only to play into their hands, but
to doom the 13 accused spies. However, the Haaretz article
may have been aimed, not at unsettling Khatami, but at
warning Iran's hard-liners.

While Israel takes top honors as Iran's propaganda whipping
boy, the defining issue of Iranian foreign policy is not
Israel, but Iraq. Furthermore, Iran's hard-liners, for whom
visceral opposition to Iraq is almost a litmus test, are
far more rabid about the issue than are Khatami's
moderates, who would rather the problem go away so that
they can get down to the business of economic and political
reform. Remember that it was Ayatollah Khomeini's
hard-liners who participated in the "Iran-Contra" arms for
hostages swap of the 1980s. Moreover, in Iran-Contra, it
was Israel that supplied the weapons destined for Iran.

This points out the key paradox in Iranian politics. If
Iraq is the enemy, then Israel is the ally. And as Iran's
hard-liners are the most dead set against Iraq, they are
ironically the ones that need Israel the most. Thus emerges
the Middle East's dirty little secret -- the secret that
everyone knows -- that Iran and Israel have maintained back
channel collaboration for 20 years, despite all the
rhetoric. Of course, the same Iranian hard- liners who need
Israel's assistance against Iraq are also capable of
targeting Khatami with a little spy scandal.

Taken in this context, the Haaretz article was a warning.
With the article, Israel took a non-critical bit of back
channel diplomacy -- even one involving Iran's moderates --
and blew it wide open. In doing so, Israel reminded
everyone in Iran that Israel has a great many more secrets
it could reveal. If they like this story, wait until they
see what is published tomorrow.

The Haaretz article was a shot across the bow of any
Iranian official who believed that Israel needs to conceal
and maintain its secret links to Iran more than Iran needs
to conceal and maintain those same links. Should Israel
choose to publish a chronicle of back channel relations
with Iran, there are a host of great Islamic
revolutionaries who stand to lose a great deal. More than
just 13 Jews could hang for the stories Haaretz could
publish. And while Israel was willing to publically blow a
minor peripheral back channel negotiation with Khatami to
make its point to the hard liners, Khatami would only stand
to gain should Isreal choose to release a more complete
expose, as it would not only sink his foes but also paint
Iran historically in a more moderate light.

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 22 Jun 1999 18:48:18 -0500
From: "Aryo B. Pirouznia" <aryopirouznia@EMAIL.MSN.COM>
Subject: Stratfor's Foundation Analysis: Iran/Israel...

STRATFOR's
Global Intelligence Update
June 22, 1999

Israel Fires Warning Shot at Iran

Summary:

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz on June 20 published a report
claiming that Iranian President Mohammad Khatami had sought
Britain's help in mediating disarmament talks between Iran and
Israel. The report's release would seem doomed not only to sink
the talks, but also to seal the fates of 13 Iranian Jews about to
go on trial in Iran on allegations of spying for Israel and the
U.S. However, the decision to release details of back channel
Iran-Israel negotiations may be a warning to Iran's hard-liners
that Israel is willing to release details of 20 years of such
talks -- dossiers that could ruin more than a few of Iran's great
Islamic revolutionaries.

Analysis:

Iran's foreign ministry on June 21 blasted a report in the
previous day's edition of the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, which
claimed that Iranian President Mohammad Khatami had asked Britain
to facilitate disarmament and confidence building talks between
Iran and Israel. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza
Asefi called the report a "baseless disinformation campaign by
the Zionist propaganda machine." The pro-Khatami newspaper
Hamshahri also attacked the report, calling it "a filthy move to
ruin the reputation and image of President Khatami," and an
effort "to destroy the Iranian government's policy of detente."
The Haaretz report, which has been widely repeated in the British
press, cited unnamed British officials as stating that Khatami
offered a plan calling on both Israel and Iran to renounce
surface to surface missile first strike options and to disarm
long range missiles with non-conventional warheads. Britain's
foreign office has also denied any knowledge of or participation
in such negotiations.

The Haaretz report, which would seem guaranteed to torpedo such
back channel negotiations under any circumstances, comes as
something of a surprise at this particular moment, given the
upcoming trial of 13 Iranian Jews on charges of spying for Israel
and the United States. The 13 alleged spies, reportedly arrested
two months ago but only officially acknowledged by the Iranian
government last week, are believed to be victims of the ongoing
power struggle between Iran's conservatives and the moderate
Khatami. Indeed, Khatami, whose efforts at improving Iran's
international relations have been quite successful, has struggled
to assure the international community that the detainee's arrests
had nothing to do with their religious affiliation, and that they
would receive the full protection of the law.

If the arrests and trial of the 13 Iranian Jews was, in fact, an
attempt by Iranian hard-liners to derail Khatami's efforts at
international rapprochement, then the Haaretz article would
appear not only to play into their hands, but to doom the 13
accused spies. However, the Haaretz article may have been aimed,
not at unsettling Khatami, but at warning Iran's hard-liners.

While Israel takes top honors as Iran's propaganda whipping boy,
the defining issue of Iranian foreign policy is not Israel, but
Iraq. Furthermore, Iran's hard-liners, for whom visceral
opposition to Iraq is almost a litmus test, are far more rabid
about the issue than are Khatami's moderates, who would rather
the problem go away so that they can get down to the business of
economic and political reform. Remember that it was Ayatollah
Khomeini's hard-liners who participated in the "Iran-Contra" arms
for hostages swap of the 1980s. Moreover, in Iran-Contra, it was
Israel that supplied the weapons destined for Iran.

This points out the key paradox in Iranian politics. If Iraq is
the enemy, then Israel is the ally. And as Iran's hard-liners
are the most dead set against Iraq, they are ironically the ones
that need Israel the most. Thus emerges the Middle East's dirty
little secret -- the secret that everyone knows -- that Iran and
Israel have maintained back channel collaboration for 20 years,
despite all the rhetoric. Of course, the same Iranian hard-
liners who need Israel's assistance against Iraq are also capable
of targeting Khatami with a little spy scandal.

Taken in this context, the Haaretz article was a warning. With
the article, Israel took a non-critical bit of back channel
diplomacy -- even one involving Iran's moderates -- and blew it
wide open. In doing so, Israel reminded everyone in Iran that
Israel has a great many more secrets it could reveal. If they
like this story, wait until they see what is published tomorrow.

The Haaretz article was a shot across the bow of any Iranian
official who believed that Israel needs to conceal and maintain
its secret links to Iran more than Iran needs to conceal and
maintain those same links. Should Israel choose to publish a
chronicle of back channel relations with Iran, there are a host
of great Islamic revolutionaries who stand to lose a great deal.
More than just 13 Jews could hang for the stories Haaretz could
publish. And while Israel was willing to publically blow a minor
peripheral back channel negotiation with Khatami to make its
point to the hard liners, Khatami would only stand to gain should
Isreal choose to release a more complete expose, as it would not
only sink his foes but also paint Iran historically in a more
moderate light.

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 22 Jun 1999 19:54:03 -0500
From: "Aryo B. Pirouznia" <aryopirouznia@EMAIL.MSN.COM>
Subject: AP: Iran Dissident Case Gets Setback...

Dear Friends, Dear Participants,

With the so-called suicide (?) of the so-called Only (?)Mastermind of the
Political Murders of the Forouhars and the dissident writers ;

The non-existence of an International Team of Investigation and/or
Non-Governmental Observers in Iran; letting the hands of the mullahs open
to create another of their, Deja Vue, mascarade;

And as predicted; Now the islamic republic is trying to blame the foreigners
government for what it did to its opponents...

Decidely, that the mullahs don't have a real estime for the Human
intelligence...

Please to read carefully.....


Tuesday June 22 10:38 AM ET

Iran Dissident Case Gets Setback
Full Coverage
Iran News


By ANWAR FARUQI Associated Press Writer

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) - Foreigners trying to tarnish Iran's image
aided in a string of murders late last year of dissident intellectuals, the
military prosecutor said Tuesday.

The case, which shocked the nation because of acknowledged involvement by
Iranian intelligence agents, made headlines again when the top suspect
reportedly killed himself Saturday in prison.

Military prosecutor Mohammad Niyazi said Tuesday in a Tehran radio interview
that Saeed Emami's suicide ``will not mean that we have lost all leads.''

``We have evidence and confessions that foreign hands were involved in the
killings,'' Niyazi, who heads the investigation into the killings of five
dissident writers and intellectuals, told Tehran radio. The broadcast was
monitored in Dubai.

``We cannot say more because the investigations are not over. But the aim of
the murders was to start infighting among the different political groups in
the country and to tarnish the image of the Islamic Republic,'' Niyazi said.

Iranian officials routinely blame evils on the outside world, particularly
the United States and Israel. In this case, however, the government made a
startling admission in January that rogue Intelligence Ministry agents were
behind the killings.

Niyazi's comments Monday marked the most direct official accusation of
foreign involvement.

Three writers and a husband and wife who belonged to a minor opposition
party were found dead in November and December, some of them stabbed or
strangled. The murders intensified a power struggle between hard-liners and
moderates, with the accused agents widely believed to have been loyal to
hard-line politicians.

The Intelligence Ministry is controlled by the hard-line faction, which
wants to maintain absolute Islamic rule and opposes social reforms led by
moderate President Mohammad Khatami.

Several independent Iranian newspapers have questioned Emami's death, asking
how a key suspect in such a sensational case could have been allowed to
commit suicide. Official Iranian news reports said he swallowed a hair
removal substance while taking a bath.

Niyazi warned newspapers not to try and muddy the waters.

``We urge newspapers to exercise prudence,'' he said. ``Otherwise, first we
will warn them and then take legal action against them.''

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 22 Jun 1999 21:45:31 -0500
From: "Aryo B. Pirouznia" <aryopirouznia@EMAIL.MSN.COM>
Subject: IRAN/Amnesty International: Fear for Safety

* News Release Issued by the International Secretariat of Amnesty
International *

PUBLIC AI Index: MDE 13/13/99

UA 141/99 Fear for safety 22 June 1999

IRAN

Heshmatollah Tabarzadi, age 39, journalist
Hossein Kashani, journalist


Amnesty International is concerned for the safety of Heshmatollah Tabarzadi,
editor-in-chief of the weekly
newsletter Hoveyat-e-Khish (Our Identity), and Hossein Kashani, its
director, who have been arrested after questioning about publishing
information contrary to "public order and the public interest".

On 16 June 1999, Hossein Kashani was summoned to a tribunal at the office of
the revolutionary prosecutor, in Evin prison, and arrested after
questioning.

Heshmatollah Tabarzadi was called to the same office for questioning the
following day, and was also arrested.

They have both been detained in Evin prison since then, and have not been
granted access to family or legal representation.

The precise charges brought against them are not clear and have not been
officially announced.

Before Hossein Kashani was arrested the Ministry of Culture and Islamic
Guidance issued a statement saying that it intended to charge
Hoveyat-e-Khish with publishing "deceitful and offensive" articles.

Heshmatollah Tabarzadi gave a radio interview the day
before his arrest, in which he reportedly criticised aspects
of government policy. He also reportedly criticised President Khatami's
position on the arrest of at least 13 people, thought
to include Iranian Jews, rabbis and religious teachers, who have been
charged with espionage and spying for the USA and Israel (see UA 133/99, MDE
13/11/99, 8 June 1999).

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Hoveyat-e-Khish has only published three issues to date. Heshmatollah
Tabarzadi was previously the editor of the
student newsletter Payam-e Daneshjou (Students' Message), which was banned
after complaints from a number of government officials.

In 1998, shortly after he had reportedly criticised the Iranian leadership
in Payam-e Daneshjou, he was attacked and beaten by a group of unknown men
who raided the office of the Islamic Students' Association.
He is now the president of the Association as well as the editor-in-chief of
Hoveyat-e-Khish.

On 25 May 1999, shortly before he was scheduled to speak at a protest rally
at Tehran University, student activist Manuchehr Mohammadi was attacked and
driven off in a car by five unknown men. Gholamreza Mohajeri-Nezhad, another
student leader, was also detained on 30 May. They were released at the
beginning of June, but a number of people who attended the rally are said to
be still in fear for their safety (see UA MDE 13/09/99, 26 May 1999 and UA
MDE 13/12/99, 11 June 1999).

RECOMMENDED ACTION:

Please send telegrams/faxes/express/airmail letters in English or your own
language:

- seeking urgent clarification from the authorities of the exact charges
which have been brought against Hossein Kashani and Heshmatollah Tabarzadi;

- seeking assurances that they will be allowed access to family and legal
representation of their choice;

- urging the authorities to take concrete measures to guarantee the security
of all other students activists and government critics believed to be at
risk.

APPEALS TO:

Leader of the Islamic Republic
His Excellency Ayatollah Sayed 'Ali Khamenei
The Presidency, Palestine Avenue Azerbaijan Intersection, Tehran, Islamic
Republic of Iran
Telegrams: Ayatollah Khamenei, Tehran, Iran
Salutation: Your Excellency

President
His Excellency
Hojjatoleslam val Moslemin Sayed Mohammad Khatami
The Presidency, Palestine Avenue Azerbaijan Intersection, Tehran, The
Islamic Republic of Iran
Telegrams: President Khatami, Tehran, Iran
Salutation: Your Excellency

Head of the Judiciary
His Excellency Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi
Ministry of Justice
Park-e Shahr, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran
Telegrams: Head of the Judiciary, Tehran, Iran
Salutation: Your Excellency

Minister of the Interior
His Excellency Moussavi Lari
Ministry of the Interior
Dr Fatemi Avenue
Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran
Telegrams: Interior Minister, Tehran, Iran
Salutation: Your Excellency

COPIES TO:

Minister of Foreign Affairs
His Excellency Kamal Kharrazi
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Sheikh Abdolmajid Keshk-e Mesri Avenue
Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran

Mr Mohammad Hassan Zia'i-Far
Secretary, Islamic Human Rights Commission
PO Box 13165-137
Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran
Faxes: + 98 21 204 0541

And to diplomatic representatives of Iran accredited to your country.

PLEASE SEND APPEALS IMMEDIATELY. Check with the International Secretariat,
or your section office, if sending appeals after 3 August 1999.

------------------------------

End of DNI-NEWS Digest - 21 Jun 1999 to 22 Jun 1999
***************************************************